The biofuels sector in Brazil is about to experience a decade of significant transformations , as revealed in a report prepared by the Energy Research Company (EPE). The study, which analyzes investments (CAPEX) and operational and maintenance costs (OPEX) in the period from 2025 to 2034, covers a wide range of renewable fuels, highlighting the country's strategic role in the global energy transition.
Based on the targets set out in the Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan (PDE 2034) and legislation such as the Fuel of the Future Law, the document presents estimates for traditional and advanced biofuels, including ethanol, biodiesel, biogas and sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) .
Traditional and advanced biofuels: CAPEX and OPEX perspectives
The report details the investments needed for different biofuels. For ethanol, both first-generation (sugarcane) and second-generation (2G), and corn ethanol, the study points to their continued relevance in the sugar-energy sector. Second-generation technologies, in particular, will require substantial investments due to their technological complexity and potential for reducing emissions .
Biodiesel and green diesel, which are essential to meet the blending mandates for diesel B, are also highlighted as priority areas for investment. In addition, biogas and biomethane, derived mainly from agricultural and industrial waste, are gaining attention as promising alternatives to expand Brazil's sustainable energy matrix.
Among emerging fuels, SAF (sustainable aviation fuel) and vegetable oil co-processing appear as strategic solutions to reduce the carbon footprint of the transport sector . However, large-scale implementation of these technologies will require significant investments in infrastructure and innovation.
The Future Fuel Law and projections until 2034
The study also analyzes the regulatory impacts and targets set by the Fuel of the Future Law, which establishes criteria for the inclusion of new biofuels in the national matrix . With an emphasis on SAF, biomethane and increased biodiesel content in diesel B, the report performs sensitivity analyses to assess how these policies will influence costs and investments in the sector.
These projections are in line with Brazil's decarbonization goals, which seek to consolidate its position as a leader in the production and export of renewable fuels . However, the report warns of the need for consistent public policies and financial incentives to attract the necessary investments.
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