The new edition of the 2034 Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan (PDE 2034), published by the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) and the Energy Research Company (EPE) , presents a socio-environmental analysis that points to Brazil as one of the countries with the lowest per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in energy production and use. The combination of a diversified energy matrix, based on renewable sources, with public decarbonization policies places the country in a privileged position to face climate challenges, projecting an emission of 2.4 tons of CO2 equivalent (tCO2eq) per inhabitant by 2034.
The Contribution of Renewable Sources to Low Gas Emissions
The study reveals that Brazil managed to maintain energy production and use, accounting for only 24% of the country's total GHG emissions in 2022, a result attributed to the broad participation of renewable sources in its energy matrix. This difference puts Brazil at an advantage over other economically significant nations, whose per capita emissions are much higher. For example, per capita emissions in Europe and the OECD are currently around 5.4 tCO2eq/inhabitant , while in the United States they reach 13.8 tCO2eq/inhabitant .
Renewable sources, such as hydroelectric, wind, solar and biomass, continue to be the main foundation for keeping emissions under control. Even with economic expansion and social development, projections indicate that the energy matrix will remain predominantly clean, which reaffirms the country's commitment to environmental sustainability. This sustainable profile is essential for Brazil to achieve the internationally agreed emissions reduction targets.
Transport and Industry: Challenges and Advances in Decarbonization
According to the PDE 2034, the transportation and industry sectors are responsible for 68% of the sectoral emissions projected for 2034, but public policies to replace fossil fuels with renewables have been promoting significant progress. For the transportation sector, emissions are estimated to increase by only 12% between 2024 and 2034 , a controlled growth, thanks to ethanol, biodiesel, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). This control will be further strengthened with the gradual electrification of vehicles, gains in energy efficiency, and the optimization of transportation systems.
In industry, decarbonization strategies involve sustainable practices, such as the use of waste to generate energy and the optimization of existing infrastructures . In addition, the application of advanced technologies to reduce industrial emissions reinforces the commitment to a fair and inclusive energy transition, aligned with the challenges posed by climate change.
Strategic Opportunities and the Future of Sustainable Energy
The 2034 PDE also presents strategic opportunities for Brazil to consolidate its leading position in energy sustainability. One of the key strategies is to maintain the high share of renewable sources in the energy matrix, combined with technological innovations that allow for cost reduction and increased efficiency in the production and distribution of clean energy. Decarbonization practices, such as waste reuse and the implementation of new sustainable infrastructures, are also crucial to optimize resources and minimize environmental impacts.
Furthermore, the study highlights the importance of maintaining an integrated approach between energy and the environment, emphasizing that efforts to reduce emissions need to be aligned with Brazil's natural potential. With abundant water, solar and wind resources, the country has great potential to continue being a model of sustainable energy production, contributing to the mitigation of global climate impacts.
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